Meerut GDP 2027
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The Uttar Pradesh Government under the stewardship of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has set a target to make Uttar Pradesh a $1 trillion economy by 2027. The target to be achieved in less than 5 years is four times than the current level. The Chief Minister himself has emphasized to breakdown the goals to the district level.
Keeping in view that Meerut is among the group of top 5 industrialized districts of the state, it would have to contribute more than four times to compensate for other not so advanced districts to help the State to achieve the goal. While the target is ambitious, the fillip to the hope is given by several positives that have emerged in recent years.
Firstly, Meerut is part of the NCR- a mega industrial zone that has become a magnet for attracting investment. It is just 60 min from the core of NCR- Delhi and is connected by world class highways and is being connected to India's first rapid Rail network. The travel time from Delhi to Meerut is considerably reduced as compared to Greater Noida or Manesar or Sonipat, the other competing investment destinations. Meerut will also be connected to Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.
These developments are set to transform the economic geography of the district. Further, Meerut also encompasses the largest cantonment in India both in terms of population and geographical area. Last but not the least, it already has over a dozen industrial and services clusters pump priming economy of the district. GDP is an ideal indicator of prosperity as it measures the output in the entire economy in non-overlapping method and alternate methods of estimation through supply side, perspective of demand and factor shares, it leads to a common outcome.
Assessment of GDP through these methods is summarized below to indicate that GDP is not a black hole. At the State level, usually data is released for GDP from supply side perspective, though in non monetized services sector, measurement may often be based on factor shares.
| Box 1: Estimating Gross Domestic Product | ||
|---|---|---|
| From Supply perspective | From Demand Perspective | From Factor Shares |
| Value Added from Agriculture & Allied Sectors | Government Final Consumption Expenditure | Labour Payments, Wages & other emoluments |
| Value Added from Industry | Private Final Consumption Expenditure | Interest and Rent |
| Value Added from Services | Investment (Gross Capital Formation) | Profit or Mixed Income |
| Taxes less Subsidies | Net International Trade | Depreciation |
| Working Approach | ||
| GDP= GVA (Output-Inputs)+ Net of Taxes | Consumption + Gross Capital Formation (Domestic Savings+ Capital Transfers) | Labour Share+lnterest + Rent+Profit+Depreciation |
This study based on desk research and discussions with the stakeholders at ground level attempts to look at investment opportunities, policies to be adopted at ground level, role of ground level institutions and other factors that may impinge on growth. The study is set in the background of the State of Uttar Pradesh and looks at the development opportunities in Meerut as one of its promising districts.
We look at the six parameters to examine the feasibility of converting this rhetoric to reality covering the level of GSDP and its structure including the best possible growth achieved in last decade; the level of workforce and its structure; the institutional credit relative to GSDP; the capital expenditure of the State; the policy dynamism; and the effectiveness of its administrative apparatus. The empirical findings of the study revealed a significant and positive association between States' capital outlay and GSDP - a one per cent increase in capital outlay leading to a range of 0.82-0.84 per cent increase in GSDP. Further, the findings also revealed that past values of capital outlay influence the current year's decision on public investment.
| Box 2 : Explanation of GDP Calculation |
|---|
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
| GDP is the total value of all economic activities in a district, state, or country. In India, GDP is estimated at the activity level as gross value added, which is divided into three sectors: Agriculture, Industry, and Services. |
| • Agriculture: The sector comprises crops, livestock, fisheries, and forestry. For crops, the value added is calculated as the output value minus input costs using Mandi prices. Livestock output is valued at wholesale prices, and input costs are deducted. The same approach applies to fisheries and forestry. Input costs which are consumed in production process such as fertilizers and seeds are deducted to arrive gross value added. For livestock, output is valued at wholesale prices or prices which a producer gets. Input costs which are consumed in the production process is deducted to arrive at gross value added. Similarly, the value added from fisheries and forestry sector is estimated. |
| • Industry: This sector is divided into mining, manufacturing, electricity & utilities, and construction. Data for major minerals comes from the Indian Bureau of Mines, while minor minerals are sourced from district/State/National level data. Manufacturing data is separately estimated for organized and unorganized sectors using the Annual Survey of Industries and Ministry of Corporate Affairs data. Electricity and utilities data use indicators such as the number of workers and civic facilities, and construction data utilize parameters like steel and cement use and the number of workers. |
| • Services: Similar to the Tertiary sector, services include trade, hotels & restaurants, transport, communication, banking & insurance, real estate, professional services, public administration & defence, and other services. Data for organized services comes from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA 21) and Government Departments, while other services use the number of workers and value added per worker as parameters. |
| These three sectors, when aggregated, provide Gross Value Added at basic prices. Taxes are added, and subsidies are subtracted to arrive at GDP. The share of each sector can be determined annually based on relative growth using specific parameters or observed rates of growth between census or survey periods (e.g., livestock census, employment survey, economic census, growth of production sectors, GST collections, Index of Industrial Production). |
| Item | 2011-12 | 2014-15 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agriculture,forestry and fishing | 183,252 | 245,230 | 326,174 | 351,814 | 381,197 | 402,445 | 468,346 | 9.84% |
| 1.1 | Crops | 67.8% | 63.7% | 63.1% | 63.3% | 64.2% | 66.0% | 68.1% | |
| 1.2 | Livestock | 23.9% | 28.8% | 30.2% | 29.1% | 27.9% | 26.0% | 24.4% | |
| 1.3 | Forestry and logging | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | |
| 1.4 | Fishing and aquaculture | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | |
| 2 | Industry | 188,316 | 247,615 | 370,860 | 391,141 | 407,052 | 390,519 | 448,102 | 9.06% |
| 2.1 | Mining and quarrying | 3% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 12% | |
| 2.2 | Manufacturing | 47% | 42% | 48% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 47% | |
| 2.3 | Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | |
| 2.4 | Construction | 45% | 46% | 37% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 39% | |
| 3 | Services | 310,326 | 456,148 | 626,642 | 699,899 | 767,433 | 711,359 | 811,093 | 10.08% |
| 3.1 | Trade, repair, hotels and restaurants | 22% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 19% | |
| 3.2 | Transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting | 13% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | |
| 3.3 | Financial services | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | |
| 3.4 | Real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services | 31% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 29% | 32% | 32% | |
| 3.5 | Public administration | 14% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 15% | |
| 3.6 | Other services | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | |
| A | Gross Value Added | 681,895 | 948,993 | 1,323,676 | 1,442,854 | 1,555,681 | 1,504,324 | 1,727,540 | 9.74% |
| B | Taxes | 70,634 | 95,245 | 142,300 | 166,493 | 173,773 | 189,531 | 218,559 | 11.96% |
| C | Subsidies | 28,478 | 32,449 | 26,050 | 27,167 | 28,924 | 52,054 | 29,186 | 0.25% |
| Gross Domestic Product(A+B-C) | 724,050 | 1,011,790 | 1,439,925 | 1,582,180 | 1,700,530 | 1,641,801 | 1,916,913 | 10.23% | |
| Population (Lakhs) | 2,016 | 2,110 | 2,208 | 2,242 | 2,277 | 2,311 | 2,347 | 1.53% | |
| Per Capita GSDP | 35,917 | 47,953 | 65,203 | 70,565 | 74,699 | 71,032 | 81,684 | 8.56% |
[(% is the percentage contribution of the sub-sector to the Gross Value Added for the sector)
Source: MoSPI, March 15, 2023]
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