Meerut GDP 2027

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Chapter VI - Arithmetic of GDDP Growth of Meerut

  1. There are two ways to look at the future growth possibilities. First is to assess the growth in each sector and sub sector and aggregate that to arrive at the Gross District Domestic Product (GOOP) or District level GDP. Second approach is to take the current GDP of the District as surrogate and extrapolate based on certain assumptions. We have preferred the second approach; though in earlier Chapters have outlined sector specific concerns and options because it is always possible for some of these sectors to emerge as lead sectors.Further,a surrogate measure allows policy shifts more easily.

  2. With a little over 3 per cent share in overall GSDP of the State, the GSDP of Meerut need to reach US$ 30 billion by 2026-27, in line with the State perspective of a trillion-dollar GSDP. Overall growth that has observed for Meerut during 2011-12 to 2020-21 at 9.4 per cent is somewhat lower than the growth recorded by the State. Yet, Meerut has obvious advantages for scaling it up better than the State as a whole. At a normal base line growth scenario of 13 per cent, the GSDP reaches barley US$ 20 billion.The required rate of growth for Meerut to reach US $ 30 billion is in excess of 30 per cent, assuming a moderately depreciating rupee (Table 26).

Table 26: Arithmetic of GDP (Rs crore)

  Base GDP GDP at 13% Base Growth Additional Growth Base GDP for Next Year
  Institutional Improvements Labour Participation Relocation of Labour New Investment
 2023-24  67,765 76,574 678 678 1,355 2,963 82,248
 2024-25  82,248 92,940 822 822 1,645 2,963 99,193
 2025-26  99,193 112,088 992 992 1,984 2,963 119,019
 2026-27  119,019 134,491 1,190 1,190 2,380 2,963 142,215
 2027-28  142,215 160,703 1,422 1,422 2,844 2,963 169,355
 2028-29  169,355 191,371 1,694 1,694 3,387 2,963 201,108
 2029-30  201,108 227,252 2,011 2,011 4,022 2,963 236,156

  1. Some key assumption in the forecast includes, additional growth at 1 per cent for institutional improvement and labour participation, 2 per cent on account of labor relocation for one sector to another, an Incremental Capital Output Ration (ICOR) of 2.7 in nominal terms for new public and private investment that has been targeted. If the base growth increases there would be an early realization of target.

Table 27 : Additional growth drivers

Proposed Intervention Increased Estimated in GDP Caveat
  1   ICOR 2.7% Committed investment Rs. 10,000 er for districts materializes; Political leadership & district administration.
  2   Labour participation & Institutional investment 1% Greater participation of women with improved law & order & skills training.
  3   Labour relocation 2% Migration from Agriculture through expansion of industry/ services & skills training.
  4   Institutional Improvement 1% Improving ease of doing business, reducing delays and multiple visits, interface with State and Central agencies.

  1. Institutions have a significant role in accelerating growth. The role of District institutions basic functions is summarized in Box 15.
Box 15 : Role of District Level Institutions
Minimal Functions Intermediate Functions Activist Functions
District Administration Maintaining law and order, ease of living. Infrastructure development, contingency planning. Supporting business, reducing legal burden and reduce transaction cost through timely delivery.
Municipal Corporation Basic civic facilities, property tax and ensure accessibility & affordability of civic amenities. Medium term perspective of civic amenities demand and availability. Supporting business through proper land development, long term view of accessibility & affordability of civic amenities Regularization of unauthorized construction.
Industry Associations Act as representative of business to understand and speak for their concerns. Have a working relation with each business, set up business specific groups and understand their concerns. Built effective communication channel with Administration and Corporation at highest and Corporation at highest grievances.
Development Authority Industrial Corridors, Development of new residential & commercial areas. Be conscious of regulatory changes over time. To provide a rational land use pattern. Ensure that development grievances under previous regime is recognized and not have a long-drawn process of ratification, re-approval.
Public Representatives (MPs and MLAs) Exercise legitimate political authority on the district administration on public works projects. Engagement with public officials, interaction with constituents to understand their needs and concerns, as well as by pursuing investments. Review Union government schemes. Politicians have an important role to play in overseeing that regularization drives are being carried out to prevent unauthorized constructions.