Meerut GDP 2027

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Chapter II - Economy of Uttar Pradesh

  1. The economy of Uttar Pradesh is the third largest of all the states in India. Nominal GDP of the state in the year 2022-23 is estimated in its Budget 2022-23 at Rs. 21.74 trillion, assuming a growth of 17 per cent over the previous year based on the GDP numbers available at that point. In the Budget for 2023- 24, GDP for the State has been projected to reach Rs. 24.39 trillion. Compared to the estimates of previous Budget, it reflects a growth of 12.2 per cent. It is the most populous State of the Indian Union. According to the 2011 census report, 22.76 per cent of population of Uttar Pradesh lived in urban areas and rest in rural areas. The state has 7 cities with populations exceeding 10 lakh (1 million) each. According to erstwhile Planning Commission estimates for the year 2011-12, 29.4 per cent of the state's total population was poor. However, updated findings by NITI Aayog based on NFHS-4 (2015-16), 37.8 per cent of the population was reported to be poor.
  2. Uttar Pradesh is a major contributor to the national food grain production. This is partly due to the fertile regions of the lndo-Gangetic plains and partly due to irrigation facilities such as canals and tube wells. Western Uttar Pradesh is more advanced in terms of agriculture as compared to the other regions in the state. The majority of the state's population depends upon farming activities. Wheat, rice, pulses, oilseeds, and potatoes are major agricultural products. Sugarcane is the most important cash crop throughout the state. Uttar Pradesh is one of the most important states in India as far as horticulture is concerned. State now-a-days plays an important role in development. The activist functions of the State encompass building physical infrastructure where returns are not immediate and facilitating private investment (Box 3).
Box 3 : Role of the State
Addressing Market Failures Improving Equity
Minimal Functions Providing pure public goods
Internal Security, Law and order, Property rights, public health, Macroeconomic management, Civic amenities, Building perspectives
Protecting the poor
Anti-poverty programs, Disaster relief, public distribution
Intermediate Functions Addressing Externalities
Basic education, Environmental Protection, Rural roads,
Regulating Monopoly
Utility regulation
Overcoming imperfect information
Consumer Protection, Crop insurance, Sectoral credit support
Providing social insurance
Family pensions, Unemployment insurance, Direct subsidies
Activist Functions Coordinating private activity
Cluster initiatives, State as an entrepreneur, Investment Facilitator, Providing physical Infrastructure
Asset's redistribution,Land reforms

  1. UP has witnessed rapid industrialisation in the recent past, particularly after the launch of policies of economic liberalisation in the country. As per the All-India enterprises survey of 2015-16, Uttar Pradesh had about 90 lakh unorganised sector non agriculture establishments, including own account enterprises in manufacturing, trade and services sector employing 16 million persons. Uttar Pradesh is the fourth largest State in terms of GSDP, the top three States being Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The GDP of the Uttar Pradesh grew in double digit in 2007-2012. Growth had decelerated post 2011-12, partly because of structural changes in the economy. Post 2011-12, the GSDP growth of State was less than most of the major States and below the average of all the States. The pandemic led to a contraction in GSDP growth in 2020-21. The growth recovered in 2021-22 and has been projected to grow by 17 per cent in the budget of the State for 2022-23. The State has set a medium- term ambitious target of reaching one trillion-dollar mark by 2026-27. The current growth at sectoral level is indicated in Table 3.

Table 3 : Gross State Domestic Product of Uttar Pradesh (Rs in Crore)

Item 2011-12 2014-15 2017 - 18 2018 - 19 2019-20 2020 -21 2021- 22 CAGR
Agriculture 183,252 245,230 326,174 351,814 381,197 402,445 468,346 9.8
Industry 188,316 247,615 370,860 391,141 407,052 390,519 448,102 9.1
Services 310,326 456,148 626,642 699,899 767,433 711,359 811,093 10.1
Gross Value Added 681,895 948,993 1,323,676 1,442,854 1,555,681 1,504,324 1,727,540 9.7
Gross Domestic Product 724,050 1,011,790 1,439,925 1,582,180 1,700,530 1,641,801 1,916,913 10.2
Population (Lakh) 2,016 2,110 2,208 2,242 2,277 2,311 2,347 1.5
Per Capita GSDP (Rs.) 35,917 47,953 65,203 70,565 74,699 71,032 81,684 8.6

[Source: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MOSPI)]

  1. The infrastructure in UP is improving in comparison to the other advanced states of India. Lucknow Metro and Kanpur Metro Kanpur Metro became operational in September 2017 and December 2021 respectively with Kanpur Metro being the fastest built metro network in India. The Uttar Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation bus service is one of the largest in the country with more than 10,000 buses. UPSRTC also introduced Volvo, Scania, and Janrath AC buses service across the state. The length of the national highway and railway track is highest in India. A new international airport had been proposed in Gautambudh Nagar district at Jewar passed by the central government and supposed to start by 2023.
    The Yamuna Expressway, which is between New Delhi to Agra, is one of the best highways in the country. Delhi-Meerut expressway was opened for public use in April 2021. Purvanchal expressway has been opened for public use, while the Bundelkhand expressway has started operating in February 2022. Additionally, the state government has selected seven cities for Metro train projects. Other expressways such as Ganga expressway, Delhi-Dehradun expressway and Gorakhpur-Siliguri expressways are under construction and expected to be operational soon.

  2. Between 2011-12 and 2021-22, there has been an increase in both labour force participation rate (LFPR), or job seekers and work participation rate (WPR) or workers in Uttar Pradesh. The increase in LFPR however has been faster relative to WPR during this period resulting in an increase in the incidence of unemployment (Table 4). However, compared to the national average, both LFPR and WPR were lower in Uttar Pradesh and so were the percentage who were unemployed.

Table 4 : LFPR and WPR in Uttar Pradesh (per cent of population)

                                                                                                LFPR                                                                          WPR                                      Unemployement Rate
Male Female Person Male Female Person Persons
Uttar Pradesh
2011-12 50.4 16.3 33.9 49.5 16.1 33.3 1.77
2020-21 54.4 16.7 36.0 51.9 16.2 34.5 4.17
2021-22 53.1 18.7 36.2 51.4 18.4 35.1 3.04
All India
2011-12 55.6 22.5 39.5 54.4 21.9 38.6 2.28
2020-21 57.5 25.1 41.6 54.9 24.2 39.8 4.33
2021-22 57.3 24.8 41.3 54.8 24 39.6 4.12

[Source: MOSPI]

  1. Overall persons employed in Uttar Pradesh increased from 6.71 crore in 2011-12 to 7.97 crore in 2020-21recording an average annual growth of 1.9 per cent, which has been higher than the growth of population during this period averaging 1.53 per cent. There have, however, been sectoral shifts in share of employment and value added per person engaged in a specific activity (Table 5). The contact intensive sectors like trade and transport (including tourism) and agriculture have witnessed relatively slower increase in value added per person engaged. Highest growth in employment was observed for agriculture & allied sectors and communication. There was decline in workforce over the decade in industry (mining, manufacturing and construction) despite a programme of public infrastructure. Value added per person engaged recorded highest growth in mining (because of lower denominator and increased capital intensity), utilities, public administration (which usually have an element of inflation compensation and annual increases) and trade. Hotels and Restaurants had a negative growth in value added, as the most intensive contact sector suffered the most during the pandemic. Reallocation of labour, therefore, has tremendous growth potential.

  2. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has emerged as ambitious commitments and a new paradigm for development. The SDGs are a bold universal set of 17 Goals to help organise development actions for overall human wellbeing, while leaving no one behind. The SDGs are in a way commitments and goalposts to be achieved over a time frame of 15 years by 2030, with implementation strategy and achievements staggered over a time frame of three, seven and fifteen years. The spectrum of the 17 SDGs ranges from poverty eradication, human health and sanitation to urban settlements and to safeguarding the ecosystems necessary for our survival. SDG Index 3, ranks States/UTs based on their performance across the 16 SDGs and is a useful instrument to judge the progress of the States/UTs in adopting and implementing the SDG agenda, the new development paradigm. The data sources for the selected indicators have been restricted to national survey reports/national data portals/MIS portals of Union ministries. Overall performance of Uttar Pradesh with an Index value of 60 is only of a performer, way behind the States which are front runners (Graph 1). While this indicates below par performance base, it also gives optimism that performance can be significantly scaled up.

Table 5 : Sectoral Employment and value added per person engaged

                                                                            Gross Value Added (Rs crore)            Employment (In Lakhs)            CAGR    Value Added per Person Engaged (Rs)  CAGR 
Item 2011-12 2020-21 2011-12 2020-21 2011-12 2020-21
Agriculture & Allied 183,252 405,834 308.73 439.30 4.0 59,357 92,382 5.0
Mining and quarrying 6,535 20,472 3.76 0.56 (19.1) 173,842 3,667,532 40.3
Manufacturing 87,636 174,961 83.98 68.18 (2.3) 104,354 256,618 10.5
Electricity & water supply 9,268 36,492 2.89 3.11 0.8 321,088 1,173,409 15.5
Construction 84,877 158,702 106.20 100.24 (0.6) 79,922 158,329 7.9
Trade & repair services 61,622 114,119 71.29 82.37 1.6 86,436 138,539 5.4
Hotels & restaurants 7,844 6,948 9.53 11.24 1.9 82,287 61,792 (3.1)
Transport 31,723 76,033 26.85 25.28 (0.7) 118,141 300,786 10.9
Communication 8,752 29,647 1.61 2.79 6.3 543,201 1,062,253 7.7
Financial services 25,182 59,543 3.29 3.59 1.0 765,559 1,659,317 9.0
Real Estate & professionals 97,454 227,335 4.50 5.10 1.4 2,166,757 4,454,507 8.3
Public Administration 42,348 112,311 9.53 8.69 (1.0) 444,255 1,292,142 12.6
Other services 35,401 88,693 39.14 46.97 2.0 90,455 188,837 8.5
Total GVA 681,895 1,511,090 671.30 797.42 1.9 101,579 189,498 7.2

[Source: MOSPI]

  1. On November 6, 2022, the proposal to make the state a one trillion-dollar economy was unfolded by the Uttar Pradesh government, which will be placed before the Cabinet. The salient features of the proposed strategy as indicated below clearly suggest the seriousness of the Government and importance attached to this announcement.
To make the state a one trillion-dollar economy, the government will spend an amount of Rs 40 lakh crore by 2027 on infrastructure, health, judicial system, education, heavy industries etc.
According to the government, to achieve a one trillion-dollar economy, the annual growth rate will be increased to 30 to 35 percent and the investment in the state will have to be increased even faster.
To woo the investors in the state, a blueprint investment policy has been prepared.It emphasizes infrastructure, manufacturing, services and identifying most moving sectors. The infrastructure is divided into two parts, hard and soft. Hard infrastructure includes power and energy along with logistics, while soft infrastructure includes regulatory, judicial system, education, and health.
Under the soft infrastructure, the state government will spend about Rs. 2.1 lakh crore between years 2022 to 2027 for modern medical system 24 lakh bed hospitals will be constructed. For this, about4.35 lakh doctors and 17 lakh nurses will be recruited.
Under the hard infrastructure Rs 13 lakh crore will be spent on electricity, Rs 25 lakh crore on roads and Rs 200 crore on judicial system in the state.
The Budget for Uttar Pradesh for 2023-24, on the infrastructure front, a provision of over <'21,159 crore for the construction of roads and bridges and <'6,209 crore for their maintenance. With religious tourism in mind, the budget proposed <1,000 crore for the development of 'Dharmarth Marg' (roads to religious places). It sets an investment target of <10 lakh crore and the creation of 20 thousand jobs in the next 5 years under the new Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022.